KABUL: President Hamid Karzai convenes a "loya jirga" of elders from across Afghanistan on Wednesday to discuss long-term relations with the US and efforts to broker peace amid the threat of violence.
After 10 gruelling years of war, the talks will be held under lockdown security that is a reminder of the constant danger even in the capital, while observers say it is unclear how the jirga, or traditional assembly, can help.
Some 2,000 Afghan elders are set to gather in a giant tent for several days of talks on two of the most sensitive issues in Afghan politics, as US-led combat troops start leaving before a full withdrawal in 2014.
Diplomats in Kabul say Karzai is likely to use the talks to secure a sweeping mandate as he pursues a controversial agreement with the United States on the strategic partnership which will govern their relationship after 2014.
But parallel talks with Washington and a lack of transparency over the agenda have prompted accusations Karzai is trying to manipulate the jirga to his own ends, substituting the talks for real progress on ending a 10-year war.
"It would have been wise to postpone but I think these jirgas have become a kind of ritual for President Karzai because he lacks a genuine political agenda," said Kabul-based political analyst Haroon Mir. "He's not tackling the major issues."
The Taliban, who are fighting a decade-long insurgency against Karzai's administration and US-led troops, have threatened to disrupt the jirga.
In 2010, they launched rockets at the site of the last such event, prompting the departures of two ministers charged with handling security.
Insurgents claimed to have leaked the event's security plan Sunday, although Afghan and Western officials dismissed the document as a fake.
On Monday, a suspected suicide bomber carrying a bag of explosives was shot dead near the loya jirga venue and two accomplices arrested, officials said. Some attendees say they have received threatening text messages and are scared to go as a result.
The US insists it does not want permanent bases in Afghanistan, but it is likely to want to retain a significant troop presence after 2014 -- prompting a wary response from some Afghans, plus neighbours like Pakistan and Iran.
"Karzai will have to content himself with fairly general outcomes. He will seek and obtain a very general mandate to negotiate with the US."
Some senior Afghan figures say they will boycott the jirga because of a lack of transparency about its aims. Abdullah Abdullah, one of Karzai's main rivals and leader of the Afghanistan National Coalition for Hope and Change, has said he will not attend. Leading Soviet-era warlord and former Karzai ally Abdul Rashid Dostum is also boycotting it.
After the assassination of his peace envoy Burhanuddin Rabbani by a turban bomber believed to be a Taliban intermediary in September -- a major setback to attempts at negotiation -- Karzai said that the jirga would also decide the country's peace strategy.
The exact agenda on this issue is unclear.
The diplomat said Karzai would likely submit the name of a proposed successor to Rabbani for discussion, plus some principles for negotiations with the Taliban and Pakistan, which Afghans accuse of fuelling the insurgency.
After 10 gruelling years of war, the talks will be held under lockdown security that is a reminder of the constant danger even in the capital, while observers say it is unclear how the jirga, or traditional assembly, can help.
Some 2,000 Afghan elders are set to gather in a giant tent for several days of talks on two of the most sensitive issues in Afghan politics, as US-led combat troops start leaving before a full withdrawal in 2014.
Diplomats in Kabul say Karzai is likely to use the talks to secure a sweeping mandate as he pursues a controversial agreement with the United States on the strategic partnership which will govern their relationship after 2014.
But parallel talks with Washington and a lack of transparency over the agenda have prompted accusations Karzai is trying to manipulate the jirga to his own ends, substituting the talks for real progress on ending a 10-year war.
"It would have been wise to postpone but I think these jirgas have become a kind of ritual for President Karzai because he lacks a genuine political agenda," said Kabul-based political analyst Haroon Mir. "He's not tackling the major issues."
The Taliban, who are fighting a decade-long insurgency against Karzai's administration and US-led troops, have threatened to disrupt the jirga.
In 2010, they launched rockets at the site of the last such event, prompting the departures of two ministers charged with handling security.
Insurgents claimed to have leaked the event's security plan Sunday, although Afghan and Western officials dismissed the document as a fake.
On Monday, a suspected suicide bomber carrying a bag of explosives was shot dead near the loya jirga venue and two accomplices arrested, officials said. Some attendees say they have received threatening text messages and are scared to go as a result.
The US insists it does not want permanent bases in Afghanistan, but it is likely to want to retain a significant troop presence after 2014 -- prompting a wary response from some Afghans, plus neighbours like Pakistan and Iran.
"Karzai will have to content himself with fairly general outcomes. He will seek and obtain a very general mandate to negotiate with the US."
Some senior Afghan figures say they will boycott the jirga because of a lack of transparency about its aims. Abdullah Abdullah, one of Karzai's main rivals and leader of the Afghanistan National Coalition for Hope and Change, has said he will not attend. Leading Soviet-era warlord and former Karzai ally Abdul Rashid Dostum is also boycotting it.
After the assassination of his peace envoy Burhanuddin Rabbani by a turban bomber believed to be a Taliban intermediary in September -- a major setback to attempts at negotiation -- Karzai said that the jirga would also decide the country's peace strategy.
The exact agenda on this issue is unclear.
The diplomat said Karzai would likely submit the name of a proposed successor to Rabbani for discussion, plus some principles for negotiations with the Taliban and Pakistan, which Afghans accuse of fuelling the insurgency.